Predicting the 2014 MLL Semi Finals

The Major League Lacrosse playoffs are upon us. It has been a competitive regular season and these playoffs should be even better. This postseason field includes a little bit of everything: the first-time entrant (Ohio), the surprise team (Rochester), the perennial power (Denver) and the surging team (New York).

As we have seen, the playoffs are unpredictable, but here goes my best shot trying to break down Saturday’s semifinal doubleheader which is televised nationally on CBS Sports Network.

#4 Ohio at #1 Rochester – 3:00 p.m. ET

Believe it or not, this marks the Machine’s first-ever appearance in the MLL Playoffs. They never made the postseason as the Chicago Machine from 2006-09 and didn’t qualify in 2012 or 2013 as the Ohio Machine. This team looked destined to break that trend from the beginning, even despite a somewhat tough start. Ohio’s first four losses were by a combined six goals, but the Machine turned that trend around by winning their last five games including two straight overtime thrillers over Charlotte and Denver along with two-goal victories over Chesapeake and  Rochester. The Machine are the MLL’s hottest team heading into these playoffs.

On paper, Ohio is stacked, especially offensively. The Machine feature former Tewaaraton Award winners Peter Baum, Steele Stanwick and Kyle Harrison along with Marcus Holman who was a 2013 finalist. Holman and Baum lead the team and are tied for seventh in the league with 50 points.

Ohio’s defense and goaltending are their biggest question marks, but the Machine have showed strong glimpses at that end of the field. Brian Phipps was excellent in goal on Saturday including a flurry of saves on a Florida three-man advantage. The Launch ended up scoring once in that trend, but Phipps effectively kept momentum with Ohio.

Meanwhile, Rochester capped off a season to remember with a dominant 18-8 win over a Boston team desperate for a win (to keep any playoff hopes alive). The Rattlers finished all alone in first place at 10-4 and unlike Ohio, are not full of “big names.” Rochester’s leading scorer is Duke alum Justin Turri with 34 points while fellow Blue Devils Jordan Wolf and Dave Lawson have 33 and 32, respectively.

Rochester features tremendous balance, including All-Star John Ortolani facing off and John Galloway between the pipes. The Rattlers are truly a team.

This game is tough to predict. I will go out on a limb and say that for a second straight year, the #4 seed will upset the #1 seed. Last year, it was Charlotte beating undefeated Denver at a neutral site at PPL Park. This year’s task is tougher for Ohio considering they’re playing in enemy territory, but I believe the red-hot Machine will be up for the challenge. Ohio is 2-0 against the Rattlers this season, handing Rochester half of its four losses.

It is always tough to beat a team three times in a season, but the Machine are playing too well right now. I’ll take Ohio in a very close, highly-contested game, 17-15 with Stanwick recording seven points to earn Game MVP honors.

#3 New York at #2 Denver – 5:30 p.m. ET

In a rematch of the regular season finale which the Lizards won, New York travels to Denver in the second semifinal Saturday. Like the first game of the day, this should be another barnburner. The Outlaws took the first meeting 16-11 before New York responded with a 12-11 win last weekend. However, despite finishing with identical 9-5 records, Saturday’s semifinal will be played in Denver due to a goal differential tiebreaker.

The Outlaws started the year 5-0 and it looked like they might be bidding for another undefeated regular season. That changed when Charlotte pulled out a 13-11 victory on May 30 to end Denver’s regular season winning streak which dated back to 2012. Since that 5-0 start, the Outlaws are 4-5. It may not even be Denver playing poorly, but rather the rest of the league catching up to them. John Grant Jr. and Eric Law lead the offense with 54 and 52 points, respectively while Jeremy Sieverts has 48.

Matt Bocklet leads the defense while Jesse Schwartzman has enjoyed another fine season, posting a 12.13 GAA and 56.0 save percentage.

The Lizards are probably the second hottest team entering the playoffs, winning six of their last seven games. Like Ohio, New York had some slim defeats to begin the season, but turned things around by pulling out some close contests down the stretch, including 12-11 victories over Charlotte and Denver to end the season.

Pannell is the quarterback of the offense, recording 56 points, 27 more than Tommy Palasek with 29. Drew Adams has been solid in goal with an 11.67 GAA and 53.0 save percentage.

These playoff matches are tough to predict since the teams are close in so many different ways. A week after playing a one-goal thriller, the site shifts from Long Island to Denver. The Outlaws are 6-1 at home this season (Boston being the only loss) while New York is 3-4 on the road. If this game was in Long Island, I would pick the Lizards, but I will take Denver to defend its home turf, 14-10, with Schwartzman earning Game MVP honors after making 15 saves.