WHERE: @ Loyola
WHEN: Sunday March, 9 @ 6:00
Duke returns to the state of Maryland this Sunday as it tries to avoid its second straight loss. Loyola will look to hand Duke another loss and extend its four game winning streak when the two face off on Loyola’s campus. It is also a rematch of last season’s NCAA first round game where Duke upset the Greyhounds on their way to winning the National Championship. Revenge will be on the minds of Loyola as they try to avenge that loss last year.
Duke Offense vs. Loyola Defense
Edge: Duke
Wait, doesn’t Loyola have the best defenseman in the nation in Joe Fletcher? Yes. Wasn’t he the only college player to make the final cut for the Team USA roster that will play in Denver this summer in the FIL Championship? Yes, but one man does not make a defense, specifically this one. Loyola’s defense has not been good.
Sure, they have held their last three opponents to four, four and seven goals. However, those three teams were Towson, Holy Cross and Lehigh. With maybe the exception of Thomas Denapoli of Towson—and that may be a stretch because he is a midfielder—none of those teams had great attackmen. In the team’s first two games against Virginia and Penn State, James Pannell and Shane Sturgis both went off on Joe Fletcher and the defense for five points each.
Think of it this way, no team on Loyola’s schedule has the depth on attack that Duke does, with the only exception being Virginia, and even that could be argued. Jordan Wolf, Josh Dionne and Case Matheis compose the best attack line in the nation and if you stop one, which by my previous statement is highly unlikely, they have two other guys who can carry the offense.
Duke will have to figure out what they are doing with their young but talented midfield unit which was stymied by Maryland’s tough defense. Although, Niko Amato’s career day might’ve had something to do with that. Either way, Jack Runkel is good in goal but he is no Niko Amato.
Duke Defense vs. Loyola Offense
Edge: Loyola
For anyone who listens to our radio shows and has listened to John Alfonso Iadevaia and me on NCAA Lax Gameday, you would have heard us proclaim Duke’s defense as one of the top units in the nation. They have three players who were picked high in the MLL Draft. Chris Hipps, Luke Duprey, Henry Lobb and Casey Carroll make this defensive unit talented and deep. However, they haven’t been as stout as maybe I thought they would be.
Lastly, Luke Aaron has taken over nicely for Kyle Turri in goal, despite Turri helping the Blue Devils to their program’s second national title last season. If it wasn’t for Amato’s heroics last weekend, we might have been talking about Aaron as the star for Duke. Aaron had 15 saves and boasts a .653 save percentage, good for eighth in the nation.
On the other hand, Loyola has the second-ranked offense in the nation as they average 15 goals a game. Justin Ward and Nikko Pontrello are the catalysts on this team and will give the Duke defense all they can handle on Sunday. Brian Schultz rounds out that attack group with 14 points and two other players have 10-plus points so far this season for the Greyhounds. For Duke, this game may be similar to last week’s game against Maryland, a lot of talent on the offensive end but they won’t be waking up in the middle of the night with cold sweats as they relive the experience that was Mike Chanenchuk last week.
Faceoffs
Edge: Duke
This is a slight edge, surprising I know. Brendan Fowler has been steady this season. I think we all expected him to go crazy this year with the season he had last year, but he has been steady. It’s funny too because he is winning 63 percent of his faceoffs this year. I guess that’s what happens when the hype is greater than the actual thing.
Anyway, Loyola faceoff man Graham Savio has played well this season as he has gone 51-of-68 from the “X.” He has performed well against everyone including Virginia’s Mick Parks, who came close to setting a school record for faceoff wins in a single game against Syracuse. Expect the scales to tip to Fowler by a draw or two on Sunday.
Prediction
As some old famous guy named George Santayana once said, “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” While not completely taken into context here, I won’t make the mistake of thinking this game will be a blow out in favor of Loyola’s high powered offense. Didn’t we learn last year that these two teams only play each other to close games? Duke turned around their season by beating Loyola 9-8 after getting smacked around by Maryland. Then Duke beat Loyola in overtime in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Mark my words, this will be a close game.
As for a winner, it’ll come down to a coin flip. Really could argue both ways here and you wouldn’t be wrong.
Duke 9, Loyola 10
