WHERE: @ Princeton
WHEN: Friday March, 7 @ 5:30
For the second week in a row, Princeton will be the site of another high profile matchup on Friday. North Carolina comes off a startling overtime defeat to Notre Dame while Princeton got served a nice dish of humility by Johns Hopkins. Both teams entered the season with high hopes that had fans of both schools thinking Final Four or better. However, one team has to lose Friday night and will have to fight a little steeper of a climb to the top. Who will it be, the Tar Heels or the Tigers?
North Carolina Offense vs. Princeton Defense
Edge: North Carolina
Right now, I am not encouraged by Princeton’s defense at all. Back in the 1990s, it used to be a staple of Princeton lacrosse with now Denver head coach Bill Tierney. Ever since, their tough defense has been, well, laughable. They have allowed 10 goals to Hofstra, eight to Manhattan and then 15 last weekend to Johns Hopkins. Johns Hopkins is understandable but Manhattan is not and Princeton should have lost to Hofstra. Thankfully, Hofstra self imploded and gave Princeton the game.
Meanwhile, North Carolina had an easy time putting up points against Furman, Dartmouth and Manhattan. They probably should have beaten Notre Dame last weekend as well but let’s get to the bigger point. UNC’s offense is good, especially putting up 10 goals on a tough Notre Dame defense.
Princeton’s defense has two freshmen playing big minutes for the Tigers and two goalies splitting time. These factors have been the main contributors to the early season struggles for the Tigers defense and it has shown with opposing attackmen going off for big games. Don’t believe me? Last week, Blue Jay attackmen Ryan Brown had eight points (5 G, 3 A) and Wells Stanwick added five points (3 G, 2 A). In the opener, Hofstra’s Sam Llinares had five points (3 G, 2 A).
Point is, Joey Sankey and Jimmy Bitter are going to have so much fun on Friday.
North Carolina Defense vs. Princeton Offense
Edge: Princeton
This is really no slight towards North Carolina’s defense but I really like what Princeton has going on offense, at least individually. When you look at the individual pieces on offense, it is hard to believe that they are kind of struggling to get things going offensively. They have the No. 1 pick in this year’s MLL Draft in Tom Schreiber but Ryan Ambler, Mike MacDonald and Kip Orban are all threats across the board for the Tigers. More importantly, those four make for an even distribution of threats from the midfield (Schreiber and Orband) and at attack (Ambler and MacDonald).
Meanwhile, North Carolina has nice experience at short stick midfield with Ryan Creighton and down low with Jordan Smith and Jake Bailey. They add highly recruited Austin Pifani as well this season and he has started all four games. However, they will have a hard time handling all of Princeton’s threats.
Finally, for comparison’s sake, North Carolina’s defines hadn’t been tested until they faced Notre Dame’s offense. While the Fighting Irish have a solid offense, having scored 19 goals against Jacksonville, they dipped back down to seven against Penn State. Bottomline, it isn’t quite as good as Princeton’s which could have a good day.
Faceoffs
Edge: Push
Neither of these teams boasts an especially strong faceoff guy that tips the scales into either team’s favor. North Carolina would have that guy in RG Keenan but he has only played in one game so far this season and last week the Tar Heels went a ghastly 8-25 from the “X.” The Tigers boast Justin Murphy, who went 13-23 last week. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have two guys taking faceoffs in Frankie and Stephen Kelly. The Kelly clan has combined to go 49-of-86 in Keegan’s absence, good for about 57 percent.
This could go either way here and expect there to be a lot of 50-50 balls in the middle of the field.
Prediction
Because of the schedules they have played so far and number of games they have played, we still don’t really have a sense of what to expect from either team. Both teams suffered their first loss when they faced what people would consider “real” competition. While Princeton’s game against Hofstra would constitute as a game which featured good competition, North Carolina beat up on bad teams.
Princeton is in their fourth game and UNC their fifth, so teams could still be figuring themselves out, especially Princeton who only started two weeks ago. Regardless, I expect a close game here, about two or three goals difference.
North Carolina 10, Princeton 8
