The Calgary Roughnecks (7-11) travel to Denver on Saturday night to face the Colorado Mammoth (9-9) in the first round of the 2015 NLL playoffs.
The two teams faced each other three times during the regular season, with the Mammoth winning twice. Calgary’s lone win also started a late-season hot streak that saw them win four of their last five games to squeak into the postseason.
The Mammoth had more of an ugly finish to the season, dropping four of their last five, although to be fair two of those losses came against the first-place Edmonton Rush and they split a two-game set against the three-time defending champion Rochester Knighthawks.
Aside from the difference in records, these two teams are essentially in a statistical deadlock. Both teams scored 212 goals on the season, with Calgary actually having the tiniest advantage in goals against at 217 to Colorado’s 218. The Roughnecks have a slight edge in loose balls (1066-1023) while the Mammoth have a slight edge in shooting percentage (.176-.163).
On special teams, Calgary has a distinct edge. hey had the best powerplay in the NLL (55.29) and the best penalty kill unit (64.36) while also scoring the second-most shorthanded goals (14). Colorado was fourth in powerplay efficiency (49.43), eighth in penalty kills (46.84) and tied for fourth in shorthanded goals (nine).
In most seasons I’d call the faceoff battle a dead heat as Bob and Geoff Snider have typically been the most evenly matched draw men in the league. But Geoff has been having a typical year (69 percent win rate) and Bob has not (49 percent). In fact, Bob has not played since mid-April. Look for the best faceoff man in NLL history to dominate at the dot all night long.
Forward Shawn Evans set a new league record for points in a season this year with 130 and will probably win his second MVP in three years. Curtis Dickson was tied for eighth in points with the Mammoth’s top scorer, Adam Jones, both at 93 points. John Grant Jr., who has made a habit of scoring huge goals against Calgary during his career, finished in 12th place in the scoring race with 91 points. Grant also scored both game-winning goals in Colorado’s two wins over the Roughnecks this year, both in overtime.
If it comes down to goaltending, Calgary may have the edge. After a slow start, Frankie Scigliano finished the year with the fifth-best goals against average in the NLL (11.12) while Colorado’s sophomore netminder Dillon Ward finished in eighth (12.55). Colorado has the better backup, however; Alex Buque posted a 9.36 GAA in limited action while Calgary’s Mike Poulin just wrapped up one of the worst years of his career (12.88 GAA).
At the end of the day, this is anyone’s game to win. The Mammoth went 6-3 at home this season, giving them a big advantage in front of their crowd. The Roughnecks, on the other hand, have the momentum from a strong finish to the season.
Game time is 7:00 MST at the Pepsi Center.
