Tournament time is finally here! For a field that appeared like it would be pretty straight forward, this bracket has some surprises.
First off, Notre Dame took the No. 1 overall seed, edging out Syracuse which received the No. 2 seed. Syracuse has the number one RPI and the number one strength of schedule. Furthermore, Syracuse has more top five and top ten wins. While the Irish did not win any ACC Tournament games, the Orange won the ACC Tournament. That being said, Notre Dame had the head-to-head win, and that was the difference. In fact, head-to-head matchups seemed to be a bigger factor for the Committee this year than in years prior. Cornell beat Albany in the regular season, and the Committee seeded the Big Red over Albany. Brown beat Princeton in the regular season and the Bears received a bid over the Tigers. Personally, I am a little befuddled because I believe that Syracuse finished the season deserving of that first seed. I think basing the tournament seeding on head-to-head, regular season matchups is somewhat basic, and is definitely the easy way out. I’m almost tempted to say such reliance is due to a lack of knowledge of the field.
This year’s matchups are very compelling. The Irish will play the winner of Towson/High Point while Syracuse will play the winner of Bryant/Marist. Last season, Bryant took down Syracuse in what has been deemed the biggest upset in Tournament history. A potential rematch will be must watch television.
There are three rematches in the first round from the 2015 season. Maryland beat Yale in February 10-6, and will face each other again in the first round. This is a very intriguing game. Maryland has really struggled the last few weeks, and I think that Yale could definitely take them out. Cornell beat Albany early in the season, and the two will once again have a date this weekend. The Great Danes fell to Cornell 16-9 in a game played in Texas. Albany has a high-octane offense led by Lyle Thompson who will need a huge game in order for Albany to win. On the other side, Cornell is a well-balanced team and could take advantage of a defensively weak Albany squad. The final rematch is Johns Hopkins and Virginia. It took an overtime period to settle this regular season game, but UVA finished victorious after a 16-15 win. The goalie situation has been very up and down with Dave Pietramala sticking with his embattled netminder Eric Schneider. UVA went winless in the ACC and this one could definitely be an upset.
Brown has a long, cross-country trip when it faces Denver in the opening round. Denver has a lot of fire power but Brown is no joke. Although Brown has some good wins, I think this team will not have enough in the tank to take down the Pios, but I expect it will be close. Another first round grouping is UNC and Colgate. Colgate gave the Orange a run for its money last weekend, and I think this has the potential to be a very bad matchup for UNC. In the end, the UNC attack will too much for a Colgate defense that has a lot of holes.
Duke and Ohio State is, for me, the most interesting game in the first round. Duke has gotten better each week this year. Its defense, which started the season very poorly, has really come into its own. In addition, the mid-season switch to Danny Fowler in net has really paid off for the Blue Devils. Ohio State is a fascinating team. The Buckeyes beat Denver and then turned around and were shut out against Notre Dame. I have no idea which Buckeye team will show up.
So, how do I see this shaping up? Here are my predictions:
#1 Notre Dame 18 – Towson 7
#8 Cornell 12 – Albany 14
#5 Duke 12 – Ohio State 10
#4 Denver 14 – Brown 11
#3 UNC 14 – Colgate 9
#6 Maryland 7 – Yale 8
#7 Virginia 8 – Johns Hopkins 12
#2 Syracuse 15 – Bryant 10
The play-in games will take place on Wednesday, May 6, and the first round will open up on May 9.
As you can see, Princeton did not make the field. I had the Tigers out as well, and I think while there is a case to be made for swapping out Brown for Princeton, Brown’s win over Princeton in the regular season and as we talked about earlier, the Committee heavily weighted head-to-head wins.
