Our Chris Jastrzembski takes one last look at the potential 2015 NCAA D1 bracket.
All of the regular season games are complete. A journey that started in the
fall with fall ball workouts to the first day of regular season games February 1st to
now will culminate in May Madness. Yale defeated Princeton 11-10 in the Ivy
League Championship. As a follow-up to my earlier prediction, here’s what I have as
my bracket:
Play In Games (May 6):
Bryant vs. Marist
High Point vs. Towson
First Round Games:
#1 Syracuse vs. Bryant/Marist
#8 Albany vs. Yale
Winners play May 17 in Annapolis
#4 Denver vs. Georgetown
#5 Duke vs. Johns Hopkins
Winners play May 16 in Denver
#3 North Carolina vs. Princeton
#6 Virginia vs. Cornell
Winners play May 17 in Annapolis
#2 Notre Dame vs. High Point/Towson
#7 Maryland vs. Colgate
Winners play May 16 in Denver
Last Two In:
Georgetown (10-6, RPI: 12)
Princeton (9-6, RPI: 16)
First Two Out:
Ohio State (11-6, RPI: 15)
Brown (12-4, RPI: 14)
Analysis:
Let’s start with the four bubble teams, that being Georgetown, Princeton,
Ohio State, and Brown.
Why does Georgetown get the nod over Ohio State and Brown? Looking at
their schedule, their only questionable loss was to Towson early in the season.
Margin of victory does not matter when determining RPI, so tight losses to Notre
Dame or Duke won’t be able to sway Georgetown with getting a better RPI. Why
does Princeton get in? They had a great Ivy League Tournament this weekend, and
are riding a ton of momentum. Only reason why they might not get in is that little
lull in the middle of the season with losses against Brown, Stony Brook, and Lehigh.
Why is Ohio State missing the cut? Horrible losses to Detroit and Rutgers
early and late in the season will hold the Buckeyes back from May. If these were
wins, they’d definitely be in, but to me, they miss out. Although their upset of
Denver is the best win out of the four bubble teams by far, so that may help them get
in. Why is Brown looking on the outside? Awful non-conference schedule, they
needed more quality opponents to get in. They lost to Bucknell in OT, and were also
challenged in victories by Marist (also in OT) and Bryant. Make no mistake, this
team should be in the tournament, but maybe Lars Tiffany and the Bear staff can
improve their non-conference schedule next year. But lookout for Brown in the next
few years, they’ll be dangerous.
Now for who gets the top overall seed, which will be Syracuse. As I
mentioned earlier today, Cuse has the top RPI according to laxpower.com, so it’s
easy to say that’s a lock. It might be a tighter race for #2 and #3. Will the selection
committee decide to give UNC the #2 seed and make it easier for the High Point-
Towson winner to travel, or give it to Notre Dame? Princeton, if they make it, will
either be looking at a long bus ride or a short plane trip.
After the Ivy League game concluded, it helped me a lot with what to do with
the remaining teams. Virginia, although no wins in conference play get the #6 seed,
a struggling Maryland falls to #7, while hot Albany gets the final seed. I was hesitant
on giving Albany the #7 seed and Maryland the #8 due to RPI and SOS advantages
for the Terps. But looking at what I have now, all three of these bottom-seeded
games will be exciting to watch if they happen. I think Colgate has a very good
chance of pulling off the upset against Maryland and maybe even Notre Dame.
Albany can also make it to the Final Four as well, and so can Cornell. As much as the
top three teams should be talked about in making it to Philly, so should the magical
#9, #10, and #11 seeds.
