#1 Duke and #2 Syracuse
The NCAA Tournament field was announced on Sunday night. Duke will be your #1 seed while Syracuse earned a No. 2 seed. The Blue Devils will face the winner of Richmond/Air Force. The first play-in game features two underdog teams. The Richmond Spiders are in their first season at the Division I level, and a league championship was wholly unexpected. High Point had been the favorite in the Atlantic Sun Conference, but the Spiders took them down 8-7 in the championship game. Air Force on the other hand was not expected to earn an automatic qualifier at the beginning of the season. The ECAC favorites had been Ohio State and Fairfield, but Air Force came forth as a surprising contender beating Fairfield 9-8 in the ECAC Championship. Air Force and Richmond will play each other Wednesday at 7:05 pm.
Syracuse will play the winner of Bryant versus Siena. This play-in game is an interesting matchup. I think Bryant is the favorite to play the No. 2 seed and Syracuse has to be a bit nervous for that potential first round game. Last year, the Orange nearly fell to Bryant in the first round of the tournament, only winning one faceoff all game. Syracuse will be rooting for Siena as they have already beaten the Saints once this season, 19-7.
#8 Virginia vs. Johns Hopkins
The best first round game will likely prove to be the eighth seeded Virginia Cavaliers vs. the Johns Hopkins Blue Jays. Earlier in the season, the Cavaliers snuck out an overtime win against the Blue Jays 11-10. Both of these teams have great attack lines. Virginia’s Mark Cockerton ranks seventh in the nation in goals per game with three. Cockerton has 45 goals and 15 assists on the season and is partnered with fellow attackman James Pannell who has put up 39 goals and 7 assists. Pannell is very dangerous on the crease. The Virginia defensive midfielders are excellent, but their long-poles are a weak spot. The Cavs give up just under 11 goals per game, and are one of the worst man-down teams in the nation. This offensively minded team has also had problems in net. Matt Barrett has started all 15 games for UVA, and has a .471 save percentage, placing him 55th in the nation. Barrett is also 43rd in goals against average at 11.21. Virginia is coming off of a big 13-11 win in the ACC Showcase Game against North Carolina.
Johns Hopkins started off their season 5-0 but finished 10-4. Their four losses came against Syracuse, UVA, UNC, and Loyola. Offensively, the Blue Jays are led by midfielder Ryan Brown who is ninth in goals per game in the country with 2.92. Brown has a cannon of shot and can score easily from long-range. The best surprise for Hopkins has been senior goalie Eric Schneider. Schneider, the brother of standout UMass goalie Doc Schneider, is ranked fifth in Division I for goals per game at 8.16 and is eighth in save percentage at .565. A strong defensive unit that has only allowed an average of 8.29 goals per game backs up Schneider. Hopkins not only has the advantage defensively, but also at the faceoff circle with Drew Kennedy who won .603 of his battles at the X.
Hopkins-Virginia is a must-watch first round game, and the fact that UVA is seeded means nothing.
#3 Loyola vs. Albany
The No. 3 seeded Loyola Greyhounds are scheduled to face the Albany Great Danes in their first round game. All year Loyola has looked like a top-tier team with their only loss coming in overtime against Virginia. Even though the Greyhounds were ranked as the No. 1 team throughout the majority of the season, they most likely earned the No. 3 seed due to their low strength of schedule number. Goalie Jack Runkel has looked like one of the best goalies in the country, finishing the season first in goals against average at 6.91 and second in save percentage at .620. The Loyola long-poles are a force to be reckoned with as well. Pat Laconi has averaged two caused turnovers per game and the team has given up just 7.13 goals per game. Loyola is a very balanced squad. Nikko Pontrello leads his team with 50 goals on the season, and fellow attackman Justin Ward has logged 53 assists. The third member of the starting attack line is senior Brian Schultz who has 36 goals and 14 assists.
Albany heads into the post-season No. 1 in the nation in assists per game, points per game, and shot percentage. The Thompson trio attack line for Albany has garnered well earned national attention this year for their play. The line features the number one scorer in Division I, Miles Thompson, the number one assist man in the country, Lyle Thompson, and a third prolific scorer in Ty Thompson. Lyle has already tied the NCAA season points record at 114. Miles is just eight goals away from tying the NCAA season goals record of 82, and is six points away from tying the NCAA season points record. The trio has combined for an eye popping 155 goals, 115 assists, and 270 points. Albany also starts an excellent goaltender. Blaze Riorden is fourth in saves per game at just over 13 per game and is 16th in save percentage at .545. Riorden does not get a lot of help from his defense facing 636 shots this year.
Loyola is clearly the better team from top to bottom, but if Albany gets going on offense, it could be war of attrition.
Penn & Denver
| Category | Denver | Penn | Maryland | UNC | UVA |
| RPI | 7 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| SOS | 25 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 4 |
| Quality Wins | UND | DU 12-10 | SU 16-8Duke 10-6
UVA 9-6 UND 12-8 |
UMDJHU
UVA |
Loyola 14-13 (OT)SU 17-12
JHU 11-10 (OT) UNC 13-11
|
| Quality Losses | Duke 10-14Penn 10-12 | Duke 6-9 | UNC 8-11JHU 6-11
UND 5-6 |
SU (2OT) 10-11Duke (OT) 8-9
UND 10-11 |
UMD 6-9UNC 10-11
Duke 15-17 |
| Bad Losses | None | Princeton | None | None | None |
| Head-to-Head Wins Versus Tournament Teams | Air ForceUND
|
DenverCornell
Harvard Harvard |
SUDuke
UVA UND |
UMDJHU
UVA Harvard |
LoyolaDrexel
SU JHU UNC |
| Head-to-Head Losses Versus Tournament Teams | DukePenn | DukeCornell
|
UNCJHU
UND |
UNDDuke
SU (2OT) UVA |
CornellUND
UMD UNC Duke |
Prior to Selection Sunday, my bracket had Penn as the No. 8 seed and Denver unseeded. I was very surprised to see not only Penn get the No. 4 seed but also to see that Denver received a No. 5 seed. Take a look at the above comparison between Penn and Denver and a selection of three of the teams seeded below them. Denver’s only big win comes against Notre Dame. The Pioneers beat just two teams in the NCAA Tournament, and one of those teams is Air Force. Their strength of schedule is very low as well. As for Penn, their only quality win is against Denver, although they played well against Duke. That being said, Penn’s SOS and RPI are among the top in the country.
Denver and Penn probably didn’t deserve the seeds they got. I still believe Denver should not have received a home game, especially because a home game in Colorado gives DU a large advantage because of the travel distance and the thin air. Penn probably deserves a home game but should not be seeded above Maryland. The ACC is without a doubt the best conference in college lacrosse, and I am of the opinion that all of its teams deserve home games.
So why are Denver and Penn seeded so high then? I think it came down to geographical and matchup considerations. Penn vs. Drexel costs the NCAA almost nothing in travel costs as both teams play in Philadelphia. Giving Penn the fourth seed justifies them playing a weak Drexel team. As for UNC, Penn, Drexel, Denver, and UNC are all grouped together, which makes me think that the committee probably wanted to give UNC a break. Given that UNC will have to travel to Denver, if they win, the Tar Heels will get an easy matchup against Drexel or Penn in the second round. Then suppose the Denver did not get seeded and had to play an away game in the first round. The Pioneers would have to travel to the other side of the country for their first round game, and then for their second round game, assuming they won the opening round, the Pioneers would then again have to travel back to either Newark, DE, or Hempstead, NY. I believe the committee probably figured this excessive travel would put Denver at a large disadvantage. I also think the committee took into consideration the fact that DU regularly attracts large numbers of attendance.
First Round Predictions
#1 Duke 18 – Air Force 5
I am predicting Air Force will beat Richmond in the play-in game. No matter who wins that game, however, Duke will dominate their first round opponent.
#8 Virginia 10 – Johns Hopkins 12
This one could go either way, but I think the face-off play and offensive ability of the Hopkins midfielders will be the difference.
#5 Denver 8 – UNC 13
I think North Carolina is the better team. UNC had some tough ACC losses, which left them unseeded, but they will take down the Pioneers in Denver next weekend.
#4 Penn 7 – Drexel 10
This is my upset pick. Penn is not worthy of a No. 4 seed, and the committee relied too heavily on the Quakers’ high RPI and SOS in seeding. I think Penn belongs in the Tournament but Drexel has a good chance to take them down.
#3 Loyola 17 – Albany 12
Albany has the advantage at the attack position, but will not be able to overcome their defensive issues.
#6 Notre Dame 16 – Harvard 7
Harvard had a very weak performance in the Ivy League Championship, and the Crimson will have an early exit in the NCAA Tournament. Conor Kelly saved the Irish in the waning seconds of the ACC Championship game but this will not be a close game assuming that Notre Dame plays better than they did in that one against Syracuse. Notre Dame is flat out better than Harvard at every position.
#7 Maryland 14 – Cornell 9
Cornell faltered towards the end of their season. They are a very beatable team and I think this balanced Maryland squad will move on to the next round without any trouble.
#2 Syracuse 12 – Bryant 9 OR #2 Syracuse 19 – Siena 7
Bryant is not a matchup that Syracuse wants. The Orange will have a hard time with the Bulldogs if they have to face them, especially if Chris Daddio falls back into a rut at the face-off position. Siena will be no problem for SU.
