The Calgary Roughnecks took Game 1 of the Champion’s Cup last weekend by a score of 10-7 over the Rochester Knighthawks.
The Roughnecks jumped out to an early 4-1 lead and never looked back, holding on to the lead for the remainder of the game and appearing to be in complete control.
The question for Saturday night’s Game 2, then, is whether the Knighthawks have what it takes to tie the series and force a deciding mini-game, as they did against the Buffalo Bandits in the East Division finals.
The numbers suggest they do.
In last week’s game, Rochester had more shots on goal than Calgary by a 43-41 margin and also earned more loose balls by a 48-45 margin. With Roughnecks’ Geoff Snider out of commission, the Knighthawks also dominated in the faceoff circle, with Dylan Evans taking 13 of 21 draws.
Rochester had more power plays, 4-3, and scored more power play goals, 2-1.
So Rochester had their chances. Unfortunately they ran into a white-hot goalie in Mike Poulin who stopped 36 shots.
If the Knighthawks are to get back into this series, they’ll need to beat the Poulin Wall. But they’ll also need to hold Calgary’s offensive juggernaut off the scoresheet.
If it comes down to pure firepower, the Roughnecks have the distinct advantage. They led the NLL in goals per game for the second year in a row, averaging 13.2, while Rochester was fourth in the league at 11.7.
With Shawn Evans, Dane Dobbie, Curtis Dickson, Jeff Shattler, Scott Ranger and Daryl Veltman all capable of having monster games, the Roughnecks have more weapons than any other team.
Rochester’s Cody Jamieson led the league in scoring with 108 points and is capable of taking over a game, but his supporting cast of Johnny Powless, Joe Walters, Cory Vitarelli and Stephen Keogh aren’t as strong as Calgary’s offensive unit.
The X-Factor in all this is the status of Dan Dawson, who missed last week’s game due to a concussion suffered against Buffalo. If he still can’t go, he leaves a big hole (literally and figuratively) in Rochester’s offense. If he’s available, he could be the element that tips the balance in Rochester’s favor: he has been a Roughnecks killer throughout his career, averaging 6.3 points per game in his last 11 games against Calgary, including 7.5 points per game in two postseason contests.
Rochester’s big advantage is at the other end of the floor, where their defense was the second-best in the NLL during the regular season, surrendering just 9.3 goals per game compared to Calgary, who were fifth-best at 11.9 goals against per game. If goalie Matt Vinc can shut down the Roughnecks scorers and the defensive unit of Paul Dawson, Brad and Scott Self, Dylan Evans and Sid Smith can keep them off the loosies, they’ll stay within striking distance and give themselves a chance to win.
