Before the NLL season began, I looked into how year to year roster continuity affected on field performance (https://inlacrossewetrust.com/
Now that a few games have taken place and each team is a little more clear about who they play and scratch, we can take a look at how last year’s teams are shaping up in relation to the 2015 season. Regarding the numbers I’m using, there is some information that will help understand what this all means. Previously, I listed out all NLL rosters since 1992 and recorded what percent of the previous year’s team returned. This included any player who clocked game time, not only primary players, and was also just for the regular season. Given the variability across an entire season, I made a small change to the formula for the current season. Instead of tracking percent of previous players returning, the numbers represent what percent of the 2015 roster played for that team last year. It is a small change, but is worth noting. Now, onto the fun stuff.
This year ties 1998 for the most stable season in NLL history with 69 percent. If it weren’t for Vancouver, this would be the most stable year, but more on that later. Bringing up the average is Rochester with 89 percent of their roster being from last year’s team. This is hardly a surprise, but what the rest of the league should worry about is that the last time Rochester returned close to this many players was their 2007 season with 87 percent. They won the championship that year and opened the season with a loss.
Behind Rochester, you have Calgary at 85 percent and Edmonton with 80. The last time the Rush were up near this level was with 79 percent in 2011. They missed the playoffs that year and did nearly a full overhaul the next year to make the championship game. They’re following Rochester’s model of finding who they like and building around them. Since that rebuild, their stability numbers have gone in order: 38 in 2012, 60 in 2013, 74 in 2014 and now 80. They made the playoffs all of those years, so this team should turn it all around. Calgary on the other had is also having a franchise high year, which is saying a lot since they lead the NLL in year to year average. Given that they haven’t missed the playoffs any year of their existence except for their inaugural season, this would be a near historic implosion if they don’t start winning lots of games and soon.
The Bandits and the Rock both sit at 74 percent while the Mammoth are just behind at 70. Neither Buffalo nor Toronto has ever missed the playoffs when returning greater than 60 percent of their team, and both were great teams last year. The Mammoth have missed the playoffs once since 2003 and their 70 percent marks the third highest total in team history. This should instill confidence in Denver.
This leaves the Swarm and Stealth before we bring up the Black Wolves again. The Swarm are sitting at 55 percent, which is one point shy from last year’s mark where they also missed the playoffs, so this isn’t a very good sign. But, the Bandits had a similar pattern for 2013 and 2014, resulting in a playoff berth, so there is definitely some hope. The Stealth are actually the lowest in the league with just 40 percent of their roster being returners. What doesn’t help is that they are also the team with the highest number of players who have dressed in 2015 with 23. This is a team that is still testing different lineups with mixed results so this number may get worse. They are getting into territory few teams recover from, which does worry me.
Now the Black Wolves are the new team in the league, even though they’re really just relocated from Philadelphia. Here’s the most interesting part of their roster composition: they are returning more players than they did over three of the past four years. Most people know last year was no fault of the organization as many of their American players took the NLL season off in preparation for the World Field Championships later in the year. This year, their number currently sits at 53 percent. This does need to go up though. When the team was at their best in the 1990s, they never dropped out of the sixties and had four championships to show for it. Starting in 2003, they only broke the 60 percent barrier three times and only have three playoff appearances in that time. Hopefully as the Black Wolves, this new identity can shed some of that recent history and break through into bonus lacrosse time in late spring.
Rosters will continue to change throughout the season as players go to and from the IR, practice players come in, work commitments occur and of course, trades. This season certainly didn’t start the way many thought it would, so it will be very interesting to see how things play out. It is a long season and anything can happen.
