Simmons: A Look at Tournament Contenders

Posted By on April 14, 2014

The Tournament contenders are beginning to show themselves as the 2014 season approaches the final weeks. Assuming that the current conference leaders win their conference tournaments, the AQs would be taken by the following teams:

ACC: Duke

America East: Albany

Atlantic Sun: High Point

Big East: Denver

CAA: Hofstra

ECAC: Air Force

Ivy: Harvard

Metro Atlantic: Siena

Northeast: Saint Joseph’s

Patriot: Loyola

 

After the first ten AQs we move on to the at-large bids. The below five teams, I am nearly certain will make the tournament:

Maryland, UNC, Syracuse, Cornell, Johns Hopkins

 

The final three I don’t feel as solid about but these would be my picks:

Penn, Notre Dame, Virginia

 

I added in UVA after consideration of putting in Yale over them. I think if UVA loses in the ACC showcase game they will be eliminated from NCAA consideration. Again though, this projection is dependent on the current conference leaders winning their conference tournaments.

My Poll

My rankings changed up a bit this week, and I threw in my 10-15 picks this week, as we get closer to the NCAA Tournament. I also added the RPI standings through the top 15 below, so take a look.

  1. Duke – Last week I put Duke above Loyola, and I am keeping them there. I rank the teams based on overall body of work, and although Duke did lose to the Greyhounds, they have taken down so many more quality opponents. The Blue Devils bested Virginia in Charlottesville on Friday evening 17-15. Duke allowed UVA to stay with them through most of the game until the end when the Blue Devils got some separation, but again, Duke let them back in it at the end.

  2. Loyola – Saturday the Greyhounds smoked Boston University 15-6 and continue to roll. Loyola will face Bucknell this week before entering the Patriot League Tournament, and will play John’s Hopkins to finish out the season.

  3. Syracuse – Holy Smokes, didn’t see this coming but after an incredible 11-10 double overtime win in the Carrier Dome AND a big win over Cornell in the same week, I think they deserve the #3 spot. Against Cornell, Randy Staats exploded with 5 straight goals. Against UNC, Kevin Rice led the Orange with 6 points while Billy Ward finished off the game in the second overtime. The Orange are clearly not the same team which lost to Maryland earlier in the season, and additionally they lead all teams in RPI.

  4. North Carolina – After not playing each other in the regular season since 1994, UNC and Syracuse rekindled the old rivalry this weekend. The Tar Heel defense was incredible and stifled the Orange in the first half, but in the second half Syracuse found their offensive flow. Nonetheless, Jimmy Bitter is the real deal, and Kieran Burke is a stud in the net. UNC should demolish High Point this weekend before playing Virginia in the ACC Showcase Game.

  5. Maryland – The Terps fell behind early to Hopkins on Saturday, and were never able to revive themselves. Maryland fell to the Blue Jays 11-6 and in my poll they fall as well. I was more impressed with Maryland in the beginning of the year but the Terps still have time to recoup as they have Notre Dame, the ACC Tournament, and Navy to go on their schedule.

  6. Johns Hopkins – What a big win for the Blue Jays. Beating Maryland 11-6 in a dominant performance is a huge resume booster. I had a tough time deciding whether to put Denver or Hopkins in the sixth spot, but looking at the two schedules, Hopkins has the tougher of the two, but not by much. As an independent, the Jays don’t have a conference tournament to play in, but they take on Mount St. Mary’s on Monday, followed by Navy, Villanova and a monster game against Loyola. I put Hopkins behind UNC and Maryland because UNC’s loss was still a quality loss and I feel like Maryland, with wins over Duke, Syracuse, and Virginia, is still the better team, but that could change next week.

  7. Denver – The Pioneers are falling two spots in my poll simply because Syracuse improved and Hopkins picked up a big win. Denver beat up on St. John’s 16-9 over the weekend, and only has Providence and Marquette left to play. Denver now has seven straight wins, but only the 10-7 besting of Notre Dame back in early March is of significance.

  8. Notre Dame – Coming off of losses to Syracuse and Duke, the Irish got back on track against Marquette and Robert Morris last week. Obviously not the most quality opponents, but a win is a win. This week will be interesting as the Irish face a Maryland team that is coming off of a loss to Hopkins. A win for Notre Dame would make them the second seed in the ACCT.

  9. Penn – The Quakers are 6-3 and are third in the RPI. Their three losses have come against Duke, Princeton and Cornell, but Penn has put together three straight against Yale, Brown and Harvard. Penn has three more games remaining, including just one more Ivy League matchup, before the Ivy League Tournament in May. Penn sits third in the conference at 3-2.

  10. Virginia – Suddenly the Cavaliers find themselves at 8-5. Three straight ACC losses put UVA on the outside of the conference tournament, but with a showcase game against UNC now on the slate, the Cavaliers have a chance to boost their record a bit.

  11. Cornell – The Big Red hit a bit of a rough patch recently, falling to Harvard, Syracuse and then to Hofstra. Cornell will almost certainly make the Ivy League Tournament, and I still believe they are the favorites to win it. Cornell’s win against UVA looks a lot worse now than it did when it occurred, and really they don’t have any other quality wins outside of Penn.

  12. Bryant – The Bulldogs sport a 10-3 record with losses to Colgate, Yale and St. Joseph’s. Bryant’s only quality has been against Albany, but they have gone 8-1 in their last 9 games. The Bulldogs may have to win the Northeast Conference to make it into the NCAA Tournament, but there is still a solid shot they get an at-large bid if they win out their regular season schedule.

  13. Hofstra – Sitting at 9-3 Hofstra took down Cornell Saturday 10-9. The Pride can still make a good argument to get into the NCAA Tourney with games against UMass and Penn State, although I think they will probably win the CAA’s AQ.

  14. Yale – 7-3 Yale still has an argument for an at-large bid. They need to win their remaining regular season games against Michigan, Quinnipiac and Harvard.

  15. Fairfield – The Stags have gone 7-1 over the last 8 but fell to Air Force 18-6. If Fairfield loses to Quinnipiac or OSU, I think they’re out of the NCAA’s unless they win the ECAC.

RPI

  1. Syracuse – ACC

  2. Duke – ACC

  3. Penn – Ivy

  4. Hopkins – Independent

  5. Denver – Big East

  6. Maryland – ACC

  7. Loyola – Patriot

  8. UNC – ACC

  9. Cornell – Ivy

  10. Hofstra – CAA

  11. Yale – Ivy

  12. Virginia – ACC

  13. Notre Dame – ACC

  14. Princeton – Ivy

  15. Drexel – CAA