An Analytical Look at the Stealth’s Defensive Woes

Three games into the NLL regular season is far too early to make any sweeping judgments about the quality of this year’s Vancouver Stealth team. The team looks much improved at times, but haven’t put together a complete 60 minute effort and thus have fallen short in both of their opening home games at the Langley Events Centre.

In defense of the offense, they’re doing what’s expected of them in filling the opposing net—the Stealth have scored over 10 goals in all three games, something they did in just seven of 18 last season. With new additions to every facet of the team, it is the offense that has gelled together as a unit the quickest. It’s now the defense that will garner the attention of the coaching staff as they try to fix the holes in their system that’s allowing too many easy opportunities.

The issue going forward will be identifying how those leaks are happening and how can they eliminate them. An easy one would be to just get some better goaltending, but issues run deeper than just blaming a certain player.

One of the more controversial arguments in hockey is the use of “advanced stats” such as Corsi. However, beyond the name, they aren’t that hard to figure out because you’re literally just counting shot attempts for and against to get a measure of “possession” throughout the game. The same statistical theory can be relayed into lacrosse; if teams are getting more shot attempts, there are more opportunities to score. In more traditional lacrosse terms: they can’t score if they don’t have the ball.

This is an area the Stealth are struggling with, as they aren’t getting the ball enough and are allowing too many shots and opportunities at their net. It’s a problem compounded by not getting the pivotal stops when they need to—Tyler Richards is currently sporting a .730 save percentage and doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence into the team with some soft goals along the way. Rookie Eric Penney looked out of his element when he was thrown to the wolves against the Toronto Rock, allowing four goals on eight shots before being pulled himself.

There have been 407 shot attempts in Vancouver Stealth games this year, of which the team has controlled only 180 attempts, a 44.2 percent average. This seems like a rather small differential, but the Stealth have already allowed 47 more attempts against than they had for. That’s a negative trend that could be reversed by better shot suppression and stronger loose ball play.

Of the 360 loose balls tracked this season, the Stealth have won just 146 of them, or 40.5 percent. The Buffalo Bandits put on a loose ball clinic Saturday night, getting 79 loosies compared to just 39 for the Stealth. It’s a major reason why Vancouver sports a .356 faceoff percentage and another reason behind the Stealth’s shot differential conundrum.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though. They’re getting some nice contributions from offseason addition Tyler Hass while Bradley Kri has been a pleasant surprise after only playing in three games last season for Vancouver. One of the noticeable differences in this year’s edition of the team is how physically imposing they are on the defensive end. Beyond tough guy Rory Smith, who didn’t play against Toronto or Buffalo, they’re a big group with some get up. A little more aggressiveness would go a long way in becoming a tougher team to play against overall.

There are also minor issues that tend to iron themselves out as the season goes on. Namely, the transition game getting back into their defensive sets could be cleaned up and, as mentioned, the overall aggressiveness could be tuned up.

But maybe the most important thing is that the Stealth keep things in perspective and put trust in the process, not the immediate results. This is a good team with obvious talent, and a good coaching staff that can be trusted to right the ship before it’s too late.

Posted in NLL