NCAA Bracketology V1: There’s Still Time

Posted By on April 12, 2016

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Photo credit to Yale University

Is it too early to start predicting brackets?

Some may say yes, others the opposite. Joe Lunardi already has a way too early 2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracketology, and we just got done the hoops tournament last week! Teams don’t know if they’ll lose someone to either the NBA Draft or to transfers or even who they might gain via transfers and commitments.

But in lacrosse, we have less than 30 days until lacrosse’s version of Selection Sunday. Teams are in the midst of their conference schedule in an already crazy season. Like basketball, the field this year is wide open. Even perennial favorites like Denver, Notre Dame, and Duke aren’t solid favorites. Denver fell to Penn State and almost to Villanova last week, while Notre Dame has played tight games in their last few, and Duke is an unbelievable surprise to many.

There’s still work to be done for plenty of teams, but what if the season ended today? What if I was also on the Selection Committee? Welcome to the first edition of ILWT’s version of Bracketology.

Each week, I’ll give what I think the NCAA Tournament field should look like until the actual bracket is unveiled.

To give you what the Selection Committee is looking for in each team, it’s Strength of Schedule, Head-to-Head Competition, and RPI, preferably wins against the top 5, 10, and 20, as well as losses outside the top 20.

So with that, let’s begin with who I think will be the automatic qualifiers for each conference based on their current conference standings (10 AQs, eight at-large bids):

  • Maryland (Big Ten) – RPI Rank: 1 (.6521); SOS Rank: 5
    • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 3-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Denver (Big East) – RPI Rank: #2 (.6364); SOS Rank: 16
    • 1-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 4-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Notre Dame (ACC) – RPI Rank: #4 (.6360); SOS Rank: 9
    • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 3-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Albany (America East) – RPI Rank: #5 (.6120); SOS Rank: 10
    • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Yale (Ivy) – RPI Rank: #7 (.5989); SOS Rank: 50
    • 1-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-0 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Navy (Patriot) – RPI Rank: #9 (.5926); SOS Rank: 33
    • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
  • Bryant (NEC) – RPI Rank: #11 (.5891); SOS Rank: 28
    • 1-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
  • Towson (CAA) – RPI Rank: #14 (.5740); SOS Rank: 38
    • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Air Force (SoCon) – RPI Rank: #22 (.5558); SOS Rank: 52
    • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Quinnipiac (MAAC) – RPI Rank: #30 (.5253); SOS Rank: 43
    • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20

There’ll be plenty of change in the coming weeks, including in the Ivy League, where Brown hosts Yale in probably the game of the weekend.

So who are my eight at-large teams as of now? Here they are:

  • Brown (Ivy) – RPI Rank: #3 (.6362); SOS Rank: 18
    • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 2-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 3-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Villanova (Big East) – RPI Rank: #6 (.6052); SOS Rank: 3
    • 0-2 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
  • Johns Hopkins (Big Ten) – RPI Rank: #10 (.5922); SOS Rank: 6
    • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 4-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 2 losses outside Top 20
  • Syracuse (ACC) – RPI Rank: #12 (.5827); SOS Rank: 12
    • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Loyola (Patriot) – RPI Rank: #15 (.5735); SOS Rank: 26
    • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
  • Marquette (Big East) – RPI Rank: #16 (.5727); SOS Rank: 48
    • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
  • Penn State (Big Ten) – RPI Rank: #18 (.5673); SOS Rank: 11
    • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
  • North Carolina (ACC) – RPI Rank: #19 (.5648); SOS Rank: 25
    • 0-2 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20

Notable teams out: Stony Brook, Duke, Rutgers, Bucknell, Virginia

Last year, we had all five ACC teams in the Tournament, and it wasn’t even a question if one wouldn’t make it. This year, we could only have one team, or as many as all five again, though I think they’ll be at least two ACC teams.

But still, teams like Hopkins, Loyola, Marquette, UNC, Stony Brook, and Duke still have time to improve their resumes. But time is ticking, and these teams need to win this week if they want to keep their at-large hopes alive.

Now, the projected bracket:

Bracketology #1

We’ll know a lot more this weekend with Brown hosting Yale and UNC going to the Dome to take on Cuse, as well as the Army-Navy showdown. And Hopkins-Penn State. And even Wednesday with Marquette and Notre Dame. So we’re just getting started.