NCAA Bracketology V2: You Should Probably Win As Much As Possible

Here’s a scary stat: 84% of the regular season has been complete. 16% of the regular season remains.

Some teams still have a game, or two, or maybe three left. But many teams also have their respective conference tournaments to participate in as well. They’ll get started next week with the Patriot and ACC tourneys happening, with the other conference tournaments occurring in two weeks.

This year’s field for at-large bids is wide open. I talked a little about this last week, but the ACC is not the ACC from last year. Odds are maybe two, and maybe even three teams from the conference will be in, while we will probably see multiple teams from the Big East, Big Ten, and Patriot Leagues in as well.

There’s still work to be done for plenty of teams, but what if the season ended today? What if I was also on the Selection Committee? Welcome to the second edition of ILWT’s version of Bracketology.

Each week, I’ll give what I think the NCAA Tournament field should look like until the actual bracket is unveiled. Here’s what I said last week.

To give you what the Selection Committee is looking for in each team, it includes Strength of Schedule, head-to-head competition, and RPI, preferably wins against the top 5, 10, and 20, and also takes note of losses outside the top 20.

So like last week, let’s begin with who I think will be the automatic qualifiers for each conference based on their current conference standings. Remember, there’s 10 AQs and eight at-large bids, with the four lowest RPIs of the AQ teams playing in the Play-In games:

• Maryland (Big Ten) – RPI Rank: 1 (.6627); SOS Rank: 4
  • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 5-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20
    

• Notre Dame (ACC) – RPI Rank: 2 (.6566); SOS Rank: 12
  • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 2-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 4-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20

• Brown (Ivy) – RPI Rank: 3 (.6558); SOS Rank: 8
  • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 2-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 4-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20

• Denver (Big East) – RPI Rank: 4 (.6155); SOS Rank: 26
  • 1-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 2-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 4-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20

• Navy (Patriot) – RPI Rank: 5 (.6067); SOS Rank: 29
  • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Boston University – RPI: 28)

• Albany (America East) – RPI Rank: 7 (.6046); SOS Rank: 17
  • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20

• Air Force (SoCon) – RPI Rank: 22 (.5502); SOS Rank: 60
  • 0-2 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20

• Fairfield (CAA) – RPI Rank: 25 (.5440); SOS Rank: 19
  • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 0-5 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Richmond – RPI: 27)

• Quinnipiac (MAAC) – RPI Rank: 31 (.5335); SOS Rank: 49
  • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Fairfield – RPI: 25)

• St. Joe’s (NEC) – RPI Rank: 32 (.5195); SOS Rank: 66
  • 0-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 20; 2 losses outside Top 20
    • (Drexel – RPI: 37; Virginia – RPI: 21)

With their win over Yale last weekend, Brown moves up to the Ivy League AQ. Towson’s loss to Delaware makes the CAA a one bid conference, while St. Joe’s overtime win over Bryant gives them the top spot in the NEC for the time being.

Which means that we move to the eight at-large bids:

• Yale (Ivy) – RPI Rank: 6 (.6063); SOS Rank: 31
  • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 3-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 0 losses outside Top 20

• Johns Hopkins (Big Ten) – RPI Rank: 8 (.6013); SOS Rank: 7
  • 1-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-0 vs. RPI Top 10; 4-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Virginia – RPI: 21)

• Villanova (Big East) – RPI Rank: 9 (.5969); SOS Rank: 3
  • 0-2 vs. RPI Top 5; 0-3 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Harvard – RPI: 26)

• Marquette (Big East) – RPI Rank: 10 (.5886); SOS Rank: 38
  • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Ohio State – RPI: 35)

• Loyola (Patriot) – RPI Rank: 11 (.5815); SOS Rank: 25
  • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Towson – RPI: 23)

• Bryant (NEC) – RPI Rank: 12 (.5797); SOS Rank: 21
  • 1-0 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 20; 2 losses outside Top 20
    • (Drexel – RPI: 37; St. Joe’s – RPI: 32)

• Syracuse (ACC) – RPI Rank: 13 (.5769); SOS Rank: 10
  • 0-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 10; 2-3 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (Cornell – RPI: 30)

• Penn State (Big Ten) – RPI Rank: 18 (.5620); SOS Rank: 9
  • 1-1 vs. RPI Top 5; 1-3 vs. RPI Top 10; 1-4 vs. RPI Top 20; 1 loss outside Top 20
    • (UMass – RPI: 29)

Notable Teams Out: North Carolina, Bucknell, Duke, Stony Brook, Rutgers, Towson

Bryant over UNC? Right now, I think so. It’s still a wide open field, and I think talent wise, teams like Duke and UNC would be in over Bryant. But Duke has not so good losses, with games against Marquette, Notre Dame (ACC Tournament), and Boston University left. Their game against Marquette on Friday will be huge for both of those teams. Stony Brook’s at-large chances took a huge hit with the OT loss to Marist (and Marist falling to Manhattan in OT), while Towson killed their at-large chances as well.

Now, here’s my projected bracket:

Here’s some important games that’ll affect the bracket:

Mount St. Mary’s @ Bryant – Tuesday 1 PM

Navy @ Maryland – Tuesday 7 PM

Army @ Loyola – Friday 7 PM

Marquette @ Duke – Friday 7 PM

Lehigh @ Bucknell – Friday 7 PM

Boston University @ Holy Cross – Friday 7 PM

Albany @ Yale – Saturday Noon

Notre Dame @ North Carolina – Saturday Noon

Fairfield @ Towson – Saturday Noon

Air Force @ Richmond – Saturday Noon

Hobart @ Bryant – Saturday 1 PM

Penn State @ Rutgers – Saturday 6 PM

Johns Hopkins @ Michigan – Saturday 7 PM

Virginia @ Georgetown – Saturday 7 PM

Ohio State @ Maryland – Sunday 7 PM