In the last two seasons the Rochester Knighthawks have won the Champion’s Cup while playing excellent defense and managing to score just enough to get past their opponents. They have, in fact, scored just 20 goals between the last two Champion’s Cup games combined, against just 16 goals surrendered.
This past weekend’s Super Bowl seemed to indicate that defense is more important than offense, but that doesn’t necessarily translate from one sport to the next. So does good defense really beat good offense most of the time?
The short answer is no.
Between 2009-2013, the teams with that were in the top three in goals for had a combined record of 153-103, a .598 winning percentage. Teams in the bottom three in goals for in that same period had a combined record of 94-146, a .392 winning percentage.
Furthermore, over the last 10 Champion’s Cups, the trophy was won by the team that led the NLL in scoring four times, the team that was second in scoring won three more and the team that was third in scoring also won one.
Rochester is the only team in a decade to win without being in the top three in goals for, finishing the regular season with the sixth-most goals in 2012 and the seventh-most in 2013.
So far in the 2014, the top three teams in goals per game are the Philadelphia Wings, the Buffalo Bandits and the Edmonton Rush, who are a combined 13-4, a .765 winning percentage, while the bottom three—the Knighthawks, the Minnesota Swarm and the Vancouver Stealth—are a combined 6-11 for a .353 winning percentage.
Notwithstanding two outstanding playoff runs by Rochester in the last two years, the best predictor of success in the NLL remains goal scoring. Do a lot of it and you’ll win; don’t do it much and you’ll struggle, plain and simple.
