McDaniels: Analyzing the MLL Championship

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For the first time in Major League Lacrosse history, two teams from the same state will battle for the Steinfeld Cup. Also, for the first time since 2010 when the Bayhawks defeated the Lizards, the title game pits two teams that have already won a championship against each other. Saturday night’s Championship game in suburban Atlanta as the New York Lizards meet the Rochester Rattlers is setting up to be a great finale to the MLL season.

 

Quick Facts

– August 8th will be the earliest the championship game will be played. The 2005 game when the Bayhawks defeated the Lizards was held on August 21st which was the previous earliest.

 

– The Bayhawks have the most titles with five followed by the Philadelphia Barrage with three and the Lizards with two.

 

– The Bayhawks also have the most title game appearances at seven followed by the Lizards at six.

 

– Rochester, Denver, Boston and the Nationals franchise each have one championship.

 

– The Bayhawks and Lizards have met in the title game on five different occasions.  Rochester and Denver have played in the title game against each other twice.

 

New York/Long Island Lizards

Championships (2): 2001 and 2003

Championship Game Appearances (6): 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015

 

Rochester Rattlers

Championships (1): 2008

Championship Game Appearances (3): 2008, 2014, 2015

 

Head-to-head this season

April 19- New York 19 Rochester 9; Gurenlian 23-26 FO, Rabil 3G 4A, Pannell 2G 4A, Wolf 1G 4A

April 26- New York 14 Rochester 12; Gurenlian 22-28 FO, Rabil 4G 1A, Pannell 3G 1A, Wolf 1G 3A

 

Things have changed since April

While the Lizards lineup remains basically the same as it was when the two played in April, the Rattlers have a much different look.

 

Adam Rand and James Carroll were the face-off guys for Rochester in those early regular season games getting manhandled by Greg Gurenlian. Mike Poppleton and John Ortolani have been a significant upgrade from Rand and Carroll, but Poppleton struggled in the semifinal vs. Ohio and Ortolani has not played since June 28.

 

Kevin Rice and Randy Staats were still playing for Syracuse while Mark Matthews and Jordan MacIntosh were playing indoor in April so New York will see all four of them for the first time. Mike Manley was also playing indoor as well and is out for the season with a knee injury.

 

Who’s Hot

Matt Gibson, New York: Four goals in the semifinal including the empty net game-winner.

 

Jo Jo Marasco, New York: Scored the first two goals Saturday to get the Lizards offense moving en route to a three goals and an assist performance.

 

Paul Rabil, New York: Assisted on the final two New York goals finishing with two goals and two assists.

 

John Galloway, Rochester: The goalie shutdown the high powered Ohio offense surrendering only seven goals (one 2-pointer) with 15 saves to lead Rochester to the Championship. Ohio only scored three times in the second half and were held scoreless in the last 16:52 of the game.

 

Kevin Rice, Rochester: Three goals and an assist for the rookie as he ran the offense from behind X.

 

Mark Matthews, Rochester: The lefty attack scored the first goal and the game winner as well as dishing an assist on the revamped Rattlers attack.

 

New York will win if…

– The offense stays balanced and they are able to keep Jordan Wolf away from the cage.

 

Rochester will win if…

– Joel White gets the transition game moving and the middies get at least five goals.

 

How will the game play out

It is very hard to beat a team three times in one season. Although New York dominated possession in both games, the Rattlers were able to keep the second game close. Rochester looks very different from the regular season games as the offense is a lot stronger. Both teams should be able to get a lot of shot opportunities. The addition of Matthews and Rice on attack as well as Jordan Wolf coming out of the box will present new challenges for the Lizards defense. The loss of Mike Manley to a knee injury has allowed teams to take advantage of the Rattlers defense at times. Both Drew Adams and John Galloway are playing strong in cage so it will not be easy to score. Poppleton will need to have a career game against The Beast to get Rochester more possessions although Gurenlian has not been as strong the last three games. This game will be tight throughout with neither team leading by more than two or three goals at one time. The old adage is defense wins championships. Rochester shut down the Machine giving up only four goals in the last three quarters, while New York gave up eight points in the fourth quarter  to Boston (six goals and two 2-pointers) squandering a five-point lead going into the fourth quarter.

 

Prediction

Rochester 14, New York 13. Game MVP: Mark Matthews

 

Brendan McDaniels is a color analyst for the MLL Television broadcasts. Follow Brendan on Twitter @BMcDTWCSports.